Tentative date in September was due to price shocks cocoon

In mid to late nine years, deep down cocoon prices, particularly in the prices of raw silk fell by a big margin unilateral, in which the reasons for divergent views, is the focus on foreign orders for up to a few come to a standstill, speculative funds in the two markets, speculation, the author will Quotes of the round of test interpretation and causes of decline to do some analysis.

Gan Jian (GB 3A) the price of nine mid-price of 4.9-5 million yuan / ton, to the National Day in October after the end of the price down to 4.4-4.5 million; raw silk price from 189,000 in mid-9 yuan to the current price of more than 170,000 yuan (Source: Guangxi large cocoon market in September, October-week contract price), more than 10 trading days of the cumulative drop of more than 5%. This wave of Silk linkage, the price of the stock market dive down the collective minds of people are likely to panic, not consciously linked to last year\'s market, but this wave Quotes have their own causes.

In the simple economic model, the supply and demand are the two most important factors, specific and detailed to the cocoon silk industry, affect the balance of supply and demand are two factors that a supply of silk cocoons, which is the basic link of cocoon production and marketing chain ; two for the factory silk, silk and other silk products exports.

First look at cocoon supply since mid-September throughout the country fall Ganjian be listed, subject to such factors as weather, pests and diseases, Zhejiang and other places early autumn, Mid-Autumn cocoon cut, and the poor quality, a considerable portion can not be used for more than 3A Reeling silk material with a large number of sub-cocoon hoarding can not enter the trading process, Guangxi Ganjian although the quality is better but will cost the group, on the surface which will reduce the overall supply of silkworm cocoons and reeling the demand did not decrease the production of :2006-2007 there are 702 companies nationwide have been reeling quasi-produced cards, a total of 2,129,686 threads, silk reeling cocoon production capacity and there are still large gaps, it is reasonable for the effective supply of short-term reduction in cocoon prices should be to a certain degree of up, with excellent cocoon cocoon terminal operators are also expected to sell at good prices, at prices fall carry the price is not for sale, but subject to downstream effects of silk product sales Su Liang, finished upside down on the cost of raw materials, silk cocoon prices determine prices, silk Price linkage cocoon prices drop.

Look at exports of silk, silk exports in the first half of 2007 showing a recovery growth, the first largest exporter of silk factory in India silk, gray silk fabric steady growth, India, importers experiencing ups and downs of the stock market last year, cocoon price, anti-dumping final cut and choose a relatively small volume of imports in order to avoid risks uniform. During the September 21 came good news, India\'s Central Silk Board sued the Chinese silk enterprises, and increase the tariffs proposed penalty case ended with the dropping of charges of the plaintiff, anti-dumping case will remain in 2006 the results of the final ruling, but the market did not hold the message make a clear response, because last year\'s anti-dumping is different from the Indian side for a further complaint had been fully prepared for our industry is generally optimistic about the final results of good news has already been fully digested, and there is no direct price produce supporting role. July due to a certain extent since the stock for the production of security, many Indian manufacturers have an important consumer of India Diwali festival full of raw materials is well prepared for current reduction in import demand, leading to some of China\'s factory silk prices down. India Importers, after seeing the drop in domestic prices in order to have bought up not to buy or wait and see the side of the psychological and increased the export decline, in turn, makes the domestic spot prices the formation of iterative deepening. In addition, the continued appreciation of the yuan increased the export-oriented silk business cost pressure, squeezing thin profit margins of foreign trade enterprises of silk. While the domestic silk consumption, tepid, in addition to bedding and a few other species to maintain rapid growth, the other finished consumer still remains stagnant or even shrinking; "Olympics" theme of slow to start, only thunder, but no one down, short - Time is also not a substitute for export consumption.

In addition to basic supply demands of the cocoon, other factors also affect Quotes change.

First, the industry is still not a sound and comprehensive information system. The lack of data and industry statistics there is a big time lag problem. Although the export data are more complete, the new plant silk index has also been introduced, but other economic and technical indicators such as the silk industry, each cocoon production data such as indicators of quality and price can not be the first time announced the national implementation in the discussion, "The Crux" policy After the current output cut cocoon around the issue, mostly to do to judge based on perceptual knowledge, there is no accurate data on the basis of false prone to false situation is not conducive to grasp the overall cocoon production.

Second, is the industry\'s trading psychology. The cocoon prices in both markets plummet, some speculative funds actually played the last straw breaks the camel\'s role, but the reasons for the decline be attributed solely to speculation is not necessarily comprehensive. Silk industry is still a relatively small and closed industries, the two wholesale dealers cocoon cocoon production of most of the processing trade enterprises in order to target the professional speculative arbitrage few households in small the industry, when the current and future Quotes of the formation of one-sided view, we believe that prices will fall when the speculative money have the chance to homeopathic short, triggering a unilateral down market, causing psychological panic. October 12 Class B Jiaxing silk on the market in the hands of the main contract of 080,325 net position (Source: China Cocoon and Silk Market), silk plants can be accounted for an average monthly output of about 10,000 tons a few percent? Many in the industry are used to daily visit the two markets Quotes and other information, sure that the market for price discovery role, but also consciously or unconsciously, the disk sold as a yardstick, in order to set up for up, down Pan Die for, but see more There are too few disk prices to their disadvantage, the direction of speculative forces, when they accused of stirring up trouble, but not considered if the disk to spot trading, or hedging transactions, to participate so that prices always fluctuate within a certain range around the value of the transaction and going, so-called speculative households there is no way to start, 成不了气候. Guangxi market and Jiaxing markets are already under the requirements of the Ministry of Commerce of the rectification of their respective trading systems, changes in the two markets and the role of the impact at home and abroad is also growing, this writer a personal choice is that, since can not be avoided, then to be involved.

After analyzing the reasons for falling prices, and then turn around and look at the price level, today\'s factory wire more than 170,000 low price is not outrageous, although under normal circumstances, silk plants across the country 180,000 -22 yuan / ton is considered a reasonable level, but the ups and downs of the stock market last year compared to the current price in the short term there suddenly fell, but prices in general is not too far away from the value. When the export is relatively weak, only the hard inner strength, to stimulate domestic demand, in order for the entire industry to protect the safety and long-term development.

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